London, UK - 1 August 2007, 11:52 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to:

. John Petersen, based in Washington, DC, and Arlington, Virginia, USA for "Impact Factor of Wild Cards or Black Swans on Humanity;"
. Prof Prabhu Guptara, based in Wolfsberg, Switzerland, for "ATCA's role in addressing New Technologies' Black Swans and C-PET;"
. Prof Nigel M de S Cameron, based in Chicago, Illinois, and Washington, DC, for "The Center for Policy on Emerging Technologies (C-PET);"
. John Petersen, based in Washington, DC, and Arlington, Virginia, for "Solar Storms, Climate, Consciousness and Transition;"
. The Lord Howell of Guildford, based at The Palace of Westminster, London, for "Out of the Energy Labyrinth;"
. John Elkington based in London, UK, from Sao Paulo, Brazil, for "Diamonds, Clubs, Spades and Hearts;"
. Dr Thierry Malleret based in Geneva, Switzerland, for "The Lesson of Humility in dealing with Black Swans;"
. Andrew Leung based in London, UK, and frequent visitor to China, for "The China Black Swans;" and
. Prof Jean-Pierre Lehmann based in Ouchy and IMD Lausanne, Switzerland, for "Integrating The Black Swan in Corporate Global Trends Analysis;"

in response to the ATCA presentation, "Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan Events -- Considerations for Future Scenarios -- The Opportunity and Risk of Asymmetric Globalisation."

John L Petersen is President and Founder of The Arlington Institute near Washington, DC, in Arlington, Virginia, USA. Petersen is considered by many to be one of the most informed futurists in the world. He is best-known for writing and thinking about high impact surprises - wild cards - and the process of surprise anticipation. His current professional involvements include the development of sophisticated tools for anticipatory analysis and surprise anticipation, long-range strategic planning and helping leadership design new approaches for dealing with the future. Mr Petersen's government and political experience include stints at the National War College, the Institute for National Security Studies, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the National Security Council staff at the White House. He was a naval flight officer in the US Navy and Navy Reserve and is a decorated veteran of both the Vietnam and Persian Gulf wars. He has served in senior positions for a number of presidential political campaigns and was an elected delegate to the Democratic National Convention in 1984. In 1989 Petersen founded The Arlington Institute (TAI), a non-profit, future-oriented research institute. TAI operates on the premise that effective thinking about the future is impossible without casting a very wide net. The "think tank" serves as a global agent for change by developing new concepts, processes and tools for anticipating the future and translating that knowledge into better present-day decisions. Using advanced information technology, a core group of bright thinkers and an international network of exceptionally curious people along with simulations, modelling, scenario building, polling and analysis, Arlington helps equip leaders and organizations from many disciplines with tools and actionable perspectives for dealing with uncertain times.

Dear DK and Colleagues:

Re: Impact Factor of Wild Cards or Black Swans on Humanity

It occurs to me that in the context of the ATCA Socratic Dialogue on wild cards or black swans as well as your presentation on Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan Events in Geneva, Switzerland, the distinguished ATCA colleagues might find of interest a quick summary of the approach that we took to analyzing potential big surprise events in the categories of:

1. Earth and Sky

2. Bio-Medical Developments

3. Geopolitical, Economic and Social Changes

4. Technology and Infrastructure Upheaval

5. Surprise Attack

6. Spiritual and Paranormal

[CONTINUES] [ATCA Membership]

Thanks

John Petersen

An award-winning writer, John Petersen's first book, The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future was awarded Outstanding Academic Book of 1995 by CHOICE Academic Review, and remained on The World Future Society's best-seller list for more than a year. His latest book, Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Wild Cards and Big Future Surprises, was also a WFS best-seller. His co-authored article, "The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?" was one of the most highly acclaimed writings on Y2K. His 1988 book-length report "The Diffusion of Power: An Era of Realignment" was used at the highest levels of American government as a basis for strategic planning. He has also written papers on the future of national security and the military, the future of energy and the future of the media. Petersen is a past board member of the World Future Society, writes on the future of aviation for Professional Pilot magazine and is a member of the board of directors of the Charles A and Anne Morrow Lindbergh Foundation. He is a network member of the Global Business Network and a fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science. A provocative public speaker, he addresses a wide array of audiences around the world on a variety of future subjects. When he is not writing or speaking, theorizing about wild cards, or constructing his own airplane, John leads workshops that help corporate clients build new images of possible futures and visions for reaching their goals. He lives in the Washington, DC, area and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia with his wife, Diane.