London, UK - 26 July 2007, 12:40 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to:

. Prof Prabhu Guptara, based in Wolfsberg, Switzerland, for "ATCA's role in addressing New Technologies' Black Swans and C-PET;"
. Prof Nigel M de S Cameron, based in Chicago, Illinois, and Washington, DC, for "The Center for Policy on Emerging Technologies (C-PET);"
. John Petersen, based in Washington, DC, and Arlington, Virginia, for "Solar Storms, Climate, Consciousness and Transition;"
. The Lord Howell of Guildford, based at The Palace of Westminster, London, for "Out of the Energy Labyrinth;"
. John Elkington based in London, UK, from Sao Paulo, Brazil, for "Diamonds, Clubs, Spades and Hearts;"
. Dr Thierry Malleret based in Geneva, Switzerland, for "The Lesson of Humility in dealing with Black Swans;"
. Andrew Leung based in London, UK, and frequent visitor to China, for "The China Black Swans;" and
. Prof Jean-Pierre Lehmann based in Ouchy and IMD Lausanne, Switzerland, for "Integrating The Black Swan in Corporate Global Trends Analysis;"

in response to the ATCA presentation, "Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan Events -- Considerations for Future Scenarios -- The Opportunity and Risk of Asymmetric Globalisation."

Professor Prabhu Guptara is Executive Director, Organisational Development, at the Switzerland based Wolfsberg -- The platform for Business and Executive Development, a subsidiary of UBS, one of the largest banks in the world -- where he organises and chairs the famed Wolfsberg Think Tanks and the Distinguished Speaker series of events. Prof Guptara has professional experience with a range of organisations around the world, including Barclays Bank, BP, Deutsche Bank, Kraft Jacob Suchard, Nokia, the Singapore Institute of Management and Groupe Bull. A jury member of numerous literary competitions in Britain and the Commonwealth, he has been a guest contributor to all the principal newspapers, radio and TV channels in the UK, as well as media in other parts of the world. Professor Guptara supervises PhD work at the University of Fribourg, Switzerland and is Visiting Professor at various other international universities and business schools. He is a Freeman of the City of London and of the Worshipful Company of Information Technologists; and Fellow of the Institute of Directors. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: ATCA's role in addressing New Technologies' Black Swans and C-PET

I am interested to see the ATCA submission from Prof Cameron in regard to addressing New Technologies' potential Black Swans via C-PET. There is certainly a need for a non-partisan think tank focusing on helping humanity to ensure that "the blessings of emerging technologies are applied to the human good, (that) its banes are mitigated, and (that) we gain the wisdom we need to distinguish the two".

Prof Cameron seems to me to have already achieved a huge amount in bringing together an enormously distinguished group of experts "from the left as well as the right of the political spectrum, from various sides of the debates on the political, social and ethical challenges posed by new technologies, and from both sides of the Atlantic."

May I suggest that ATCA could be of crucial assistance to the C-PET project, by introducing relevant experts from *other* parts of the globe. This would then help to provide a genuinely global perspective. For a start, I would suggest that ATCA's distinguished members could help identify at least one relevant expert each from Japan, Korea, China, South-East Asia, India, Israel and South Africa. As far as I am aware, these are the areas where significant research is underway in the named new technologies of "bio, info, nano, robo and AI." In all probability, in naming these countries and geographical areas, I am indicating the limits of my knowledge of these fields! Naturally, there could be other countries/areas which should be included.

I do realise that creating this global panel of experts is only a first step and that the fundamental need is for some minimum seed-finance so that such a think tank can begin to function. Perhaps ATCA distinguished members can also help with this, by putting on not only our individual thinking hats, but also our corporate thinking hats.

I should think it would be to the advantage of each of these industries for there to be common "rules of the game" around the world? Without a global market, many of the latest products of these emerging new technologies' industries will have reduced or no profitability - as we have seen with the GMO debate (or should I say "debacle"?)

With best wishes

Prabhu Guptara