Solar Storms, Climate, Consciousness and Transition
London, UK - 4 July 2007, 22:05 GMT - We are grateful to John Petersen,
based in Washington, DC, and Arlington, Virginia, for "Solar Storms,
Climate, Consciousness and Transition"; The Lord Howell of Guildford,
based at The Palace of Westminster, London, for "Out
of the Energy Labyrinth;" John Elkington based in London, UK,
and presently visiting Sao Paulo, Brazil, for "Diamonds,
Clubs, Spades and Hearts"; Dr Thierry Malleret based in Geneva,
Switzerland, for "The Lesson of Humility in
dealing with Black Swans"; Andrew Leung based in London, UK,
and frequent visitor to China, for "The China
Black Swans"; and Prof Jean-Pierre Lehmann based in Ouchy and
IMD Lausanne, Switzerland, for "Integrating
The Black Swan in Corporate Global Trends Analysis"; in response
to the ATCA presentation, "Low Probability High Impact and Black Swan
Events -- Considerations for Future Scenarios -- The Opportunity and Risk
of Asymmetric Globalisation."
Dear ATCA Colleagues
[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are
not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral.
ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and
threats.]
Re: Solar Storms, Climate, Consciousness & Transition
Having read your think-piece "Low
Probability High Impact and Black Swan Events" based on your
recent speech in Geneva there is also a set of possibilities in this era
of uncertainty that appear to be from other dimensions, as it were. One
is that the sun is getting warmer and (relatively) unstable, generating
sunspot storms in patterns that are unfamiliar in their timing and magnitude.
A major cycle of storms seems destined for about 2011-12 with some scientists
suggesting that the resultant solar energies could cause the large-scale
failure of satellites and the terrestrial electrical grid system (as huge
surges of current caused by the passing solar pulses overloads grid systems).
[CONTINUES]
[ATCA Membership]
Einstein's oft quoted admonition that problems cannot be solved by approaching
them from the same level that they were produced seems to be true here
in spades. Effective responses to the complex global issues -- of the
magnitude and scope appearing on our horizon -- will necessarily be quite
unusual and incompatible with conventional thinking. We must get out of
the box.
John L Petersen
John L Petersen is President and Founder of The Arlington Institute near
Washington, DC, in Arlington, Virginia, USA. Petersen is considered by
many to be one of the most informed futurists in the world. He is best-known
for writing and thinking about high impact surprises - wild cards - and
the process of surprise anticipation. His current professional involvements
include the development of sophisticated tools for anticipatory analysis
and surprise anticipation, long-range strategic planning and helping leadership
design new approaches for dealing with the future. Mr Petersen's government
and political experience include stints at the National War College, the
Institute for National Security Studies, the Office of the Secretary of
Defense, and the National Security Council staff at the White House. He
was a naval flight officer in the US Navy and Navy Reserve and is a decorated
veteran of both the Vietnam and Persian Gulf wars. He has served in senior
positions for a number of presidential political campaigns and was an
elected delegate to the Democratic National Convention in 1984. In 1989
Petersen founded The Arlington Institute (TAI), a non-profit, future-oriented
research institute. TAI operates on the premise that effective thinking
about the future is impossible without casting a very wide net. The "think
tank" serves as a global agent for change by developing new concepts,
processes and tools for anticipating the future and translating that knowledge
into better present-day decisions. Using advanced information technology,
a core group of bright thinkers and an international network of exceptionally
curious people along with simulations, modelling, scenario building, polling
and analysis, Arlington helps equip leaders and organizations from many
disciplines with tools and actionable perspectives for dealing with uncertain
times.
An award-winning writer, Petersen's first book, The Road to 2015: Profiles
of the Future was awarded Outstanding Academic Book of 1995 by CHOICE
Academic Review, and remained on The World Future Society's best-seller
list for more than a year. His latest book, Out of the Blue: How to
Anticipate Wild Cards and Big Future Surprises, was also a WFS best-seller.
His co-authored article, "The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social
Transformation?" was one of the most highly acclaimed writings
on Y2K. His 1988 book-length report "The Diffusion of Power: An
Era of Realignment" was used at the highest levels of American
government as a basis for strategic planning. He has also written papers
on the future of national security and the military, the future of energy
and the future of the media. Petersen is a past board member of the World
Future Society, writes on the future of aviation for Professional Pilot
magazine and is a member of the board of directors of the Charles A and
Anne Morrow Lindbergh Foundation. He is a network member of the Global
Business Network and a fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science.
A provocative public speaker, he addresses a wide array of audiences around
the world on a variety of future subjects. When he is not writing or speaking,
theorizing about wild cards, or constructing his own airplane, John leads
workshops that help corporate clients build new images of possible futures
and visions for reaching their goals. He lives in the Washington, DC,
area and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia with his wife, Diane.
[ENDS]
We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank
you.
Best wishes
For and on behalf of DK Matai, Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency
Alliance (ATCA)
ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency
Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001
to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic
dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global
economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses
asymmetric threats and social opportunities arising from climate
chaos and the environment; radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics
and energy; organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies
-- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews and resource
shortages; pandemics; financial systems and systemic risk; as
well as transhumanism and ethics. Present membership of ATCA is
by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from
over 100 countries: including several from the House of Lords,
House of Commons, EU Parliament, US Congress & Senate, G10's
Senior Government officials and over 1,500 CEOs from financial
institutions, scientific corporates and voluntary organisations
as well as over 750 Professors from academic centres of excellence
worldwide.
The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily
representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please
do not forward or use the material circulated without permission
and full attribution.
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