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To Cut or Not to Cut -- The Federal Reserve must Prolong the Party

London, UK - 22 August 2007, 13:16 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to:

. Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times, London, UK, for "To Cut or Not to Cut: Federal Reserve must Prolong the Party."

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: To Cut or Not to Cut -- The Federal Reserve must Prolong the Party


Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in his celebrated speech -- The Global Saving Glut and the US Current Account Deficit -- on 10th March 2005, "Over the past decade a combination of diverse forces has created a significant increase in the global supply of saving -- a global saving glut -- which helps to explain both the increase in the US current account deficit and the relatively low level of long-term real interest rates in the world today."

[CONTINUES] [ATCA Membership]


Martin Wolf

Martin Wolf is Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 "for services to financial journalism". He is also a visiting fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford University, and a special professor at the University of Nottingham. He has been a forum fellow at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, in Davos since 1999. Mr Wolf was joint winner of the Wincott Foundation senior prize for excellence in financial journalism in both 1989 and 1997. He is one of two British journalists to have won this prize twice since its establishment in 1970. He won the RTZ David Watt memorial prize in 1994. He was the winner of the 2003 Business Journalist of the Year "Decade of Excellence" Award. In giving the award, the organisers stated that Mr Wolf's weekly column "was recognised by the judges as offering a level of insight and analysis unique to a daily newspaper." He won the Newspaper Feature of the Year Award at the Workworld Media Awards 2003 for an article on UK pensions. He is the author of Why Globalization Works (Yale University Press, 2004). He obtained the Master of Philosophy in economics from Oxford University in 1971. Following that he joined the World Bank, where he became a senior economist in 1974. In 1981 he became director of studies at the Trade Policy Research Centre in London. He joined the FT in 1987 as chief economics leader writer and became chief economics commentator in 1996. His column appears on Wednesdays and alternate Fridays. This submission to ATCA by Martin Wolf was first published in the Financial Times.

[ENDS]

We are grateful to:

. The Hon Al McDonald, Chairman and CEO, Avenir Group, from Michigan, USA, for "Balancing The Role of Management in Extreme Financial Turbulence."
. The ATCA Editorial Team based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Subprime Crisis Spreads Across Regions and Financial Sectors;"
. Hervé de Carmoy, European Vice-Chairman, Trilateral Commission, based in Paris, France, for "Role of Large Financial Institutions in Fuelling Crisis;"
. Dr Jim Walker, Chief Economist, CLSA, based in Hong Kong for "China Chaos and Subprime Butterfly;"
. Ashutosh Sheshabalaya, CEO, India-Advisory, based in Brussels, EU, and Bassilly, Belgium, for "India turns History Upside Down;"
. John Elkington, Chief Entrepreneur, SustainAbility, based in London, UK, and returning from India, for "Mother Convulsion - India's Third Liberation;"
. Stephen Lendman, based in Chicago, Illinois, USA, for "Slow Motion Train Wreck" via Ashok Khosla, Chairman, Development Alternatives, New Delhi, India;
. The ATCA Editorial Team based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Market Convulsions;"

. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA for "Federal Reserve's Changed Focus;"
. Bill Emmott, Director, UK-Japan 21st Century Group, based in London and Somerset, UK, for "Japan's Strong Yen;"
. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA for "The Asymmetric Loss of Trust and Chain Reaction;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Public Inquisition of Credit Rating Agencies may Accelerate Downturn;"
. Dr George Feiger, President and CEO, Contango Capital Advisors, based in Berkeley, California, USA, for "Watch out for Dramatic Winners;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Systemic Risk & Sectoral Meltdown: Heightened Correlation and Deleveraging;"
. Rudi Bogni, Chairman, Medinvest, and Director, Old Mutual, from Basel, Switzerland, for, "Non-Stop Central Banks' Intervention;"
. Dr Ravi Batra, Professor of Economics, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas, USA, for, "Towards a Global Economic Crisis?;"
. Aurora Carlson, Founder, Open One Center, based on the West Coast, Sweden, for "The Coming Storm of Change;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Large Quake hits Quants as Computer-Driven Quantitative Hedge Funds Short-Circuit;"

. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, USA for "Prolonged Credit Market Correction Ahead;"
. Prof Dr Norbert Walter, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Group, based in Frankfurt, Germany, for "Economic Consequences of The Sub-Prime Crisis;"
. Anthony Whitehouse based in Coppet and Geneva, Switzerland, for "Regulators, Hedge Fund Lending and Cross-Selling;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, UK, for "Perfect Storm: Credit Freeze and Distress Selling by Hedge Funds;"
. Dr George Feiger, based in Berkeley, California, USA, for "Two Faces of the Same Coin;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, based in Canary Wharf, London, for "Contagion and Systemic Risk? ECB Injects Record Euro 95bn post Major Disturbance;"
. The ATCA Editorial Team, for "Flight to Quality as Markets finally Appreciate Risk;"
. Robert McNally, Chairman, London Chamber of Commerce Property and Construction Group, for "Erosion of Commercial Real Estate as a Solid Asset Class;"
. Alexander Hoare, CEO, C Hoare and Co, Private Bankers, based in the City of London, for "Destructive Creativity, Leverage and The Derivatives Market;" and
. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, for "The Fear of Central Bankers -- Flight from Illiquidity, Derivatives and Heightened Risk of Contagion;"

in response to, "Are the Currency Markets Warning that there is Trouble Ahead? The Precipitous Decline of the US Dollar and its Impact on the World."

We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.

Best wishes


For and on behalf of DK Matai, Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA)


ATCA: The Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance is a philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses asymmetric threats and social opportunities arising from climate chaos and the environment; radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics and energy; organised crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo & AI; demographic skews and resource shortages; pandemics; financial systems and systemic risk; as well as transhumanism and ethics. Present membership of ATCA is by invitation only and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 120 countries: including 1,000 Parliamentarians; 1,500 Chairmen and CEOs of corporations; 1,000 Heads of NGOs; 750 Directors at Academic Centres of Excellence; 500 Inventors and Original thinkers; as well as 250 Editors-in-Chief of major media.

The views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. Please do not forward or use the material circulated without permission and full attribution.



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