Dear ATCA Colleagues; dear IntentBloggers

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

Within 50 years we might find ourselves standing alongside the next generation of sentient machines -- artificially intelligent robots -- in the voting booth. Far from being extracts from the extreme fringe spectrum of science fiction, the conceptual thought that we may one day give sentient machines the kind of rights traditionally reserved for humans is raised in a British government-commissioned report which seeks to provide a wide-angle glimpse into the future.

Visions of the status of robots around 2056 have emerged from one of the 270 forward-looking papers sponsored by Sir David King, the UK government's chief scientist. The paper covering robots' rights was written by a UK partnership of Outsights and Ipsos MORI. The idea will not surprise science fiction aficionados. It was widely explored by Dr Isaac Asimov, one of the foremost science fiction writers of the 20th century. He wrote of a society where robots were fully integrated and essential in day-to-day life. In his system, the 'three laws of robotics' governed machine life in descending priority: robots could not injure humans, they must obey orders and they should protect their own existence. Robots and machines are at present classed as inanimate objects without rights or duties and if artificial intelligence becomes ubiquitous, the report argues, there may be calls for humans' rights to be extended to them. It is also logical that such rights may be balanced with citizens' duties, including voting, paying tax and compulsory military service.

The Horizon Scan report argues that if 'correctly managed', this new world of robots' rights could lead to increased labour output and greater prosperity. "If granted full rights, states will be obligated to provide full social benefits to them including income support, housing and possibly robo-healthcare to fix the machines over time," it says. But it points out that the process has casualties and the first one may be the environment, especially in the areas of energy and waste.

The robot report is part of a challenging set of research papers looking up to 50 years ahead, and commissioned by the UK Government's Horizon Scanning Centre, is being released today with input from Outsights-Ipsos MORI partnership and the American-based Institute for the Future (IFTF). The two Scans -- entitled Sigma and Delta -- look forward at emerging trends, potential new issues, opportunities and threats, and the possible implications for society. The Delta Scan contains 100 short papers exploring expert views on the future in science and technology. The broader Sigma Scan contains 146 short papers drawing comprehensively on current futures work, which is research aimed at identifying future issues and trends across the entire public policy spectrum.

The UK Government's Chief Scientific Adviser Sir David King, who oversees the work of the Horizon Scanning Centre, said: These Scans are tools for government to identify risks and opportunities in the future. We're not in the business of predicting the future, but we do need to explore the broadest range of different possibilities to help ensure government is prepared in the long-term and considers issues across the spectrum in its planning. The Scans are aimed at stimulating debate and critical discussion to enhance government's short and long term policy and strategy. The Scans reflect the Government's commitment to forward-looking strategic approaches based on good evidence and analysis. However, the Scans are independent and do not constitute government policy.

The Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) is part of the Foresight Directorate within the Office of Science and Innovation (OSI). The OSI is headed by Sir David King, the Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government and is situated within the DTI. Other, perhaps more prescient issues covered by Foresight include energy policy, climate chaos and environmental degradation, demographic skews, and stem cell research. Issues from the two Scans have already been used in the Horizon Scanning Centre's work across government, including:

. Scan outputs have informed the UK Treasury's recently published 'Long Term Challenges' paper describing horizon scanning as a 'vital tool';
. They have been used by the Health & Safety Executive to inform scenarios on the future of workplace health and safety; and
. In the UK-Asian Trade 2020 project, part of the Asia Task Force initiative launched by the Chancellor. The Scan provided the context and broad framework for workshops in five Asian countries.

[ENDS]

We look forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.

Best wishes

For and on behalf of DK Matai, Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA)