The China-Tibet Inflation Black Swan and Global Implications

London, UK - 19th March 2008, 16:03 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to the distinguished ATCA Contributor, Dr Philippa Malmgren -- a former Presidential Advisor to the White House and now founder of The Canonbury Group and the online publication Policy and Markets -- for her submission, "The China-Tibet Inflation Black Swan," having just returned from China.

Dear DK and Colleagues

The most dramatic change on the landscape is neither the recent failure of Bear Stearns nor the dramatic action taken by the Fed in response to it. The most important development on the global economic landscape is that the inflation problem in China is now so great that it is giving rise to social unrest on a scale that requires a military response.

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All the best

Pippa Malmgren

Dr Philippa Malmgren is the President of the Canonbury Group, a financial services firm based in London, which helps fund managers and global businesses better understand how politics, policy and geopolitics may influence the financial markets and their investment strategies. She is the founder and publisher of Policy & Markets, which brings together experts together with traders and fund managers to assess the specific impact of world events on prices. Her clients include many of the world's largest investment banks, fund managers and hedge funds as well as corporations. She also holds a conference every year, Canonbury at Ditchley, where fund managers, bankers, family offices and pension funds meet with experts on intelligence, strategic security, defence, politics and central banking policy from around the world. She serves on the International Advisory Board of The School of Oriental and African Studies in London and she also serves on the International Advisory Board for EFG Bank, Carret Asset Management, Bourne Park Capital and Old Square Capital. She has served as the Chairman of the Royal Institute for International Affairs Working Group on Terrorism Risks to the World Economy. She is a Governor of the Ditchley Foundation in the UK. She is a visiting lecturer at Tsinghua University in Beijing and often lectures for the Global MBA program at Duke Fuqua Business School.

Dr Malmgren is one of less than five independent analysts who has been invited to attend the Jackson Hole meeting held by the Federal Reserve over the last six years. She served as Special Assistant to the President in the White House under President George W Bush where she was responsible for all financial market issues. She was a member of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets and the President's Working Group on Corporate Governance. After September 11th, 2001 she participated in the White House Working Group on Terrorism Risks to the Economy. Before joining the administration she lived in the UK, Europe and Asia. She was President of a financial markets advisory firm, Malmgren and Company, in London, England. Previously she was the Head of Political Analysis and the Deputy Head of Global Investment Strategy at UBS Warburg in London, England. Prior to that, she was the Chief Currency Strategist for Bankers Trust Company. She also headed the Global Investment Management business for Bankers Trust in Asia out of Hong Kong.

She has a BA from Mount Vernon College and an MSc and a PhD from the London School of Economics. She has also completed the Harvard Program on National Security. The World Economic Forum in Davos named Dr Malmgren a Global Leader for Tomorrow in 2000. She was named a Young Leader by the French-American Foundation. She belongs to the Council on Foreign Relations, Chatham House and the Institute for International Strategic Security. She has been a frequent guest on television including CNN, CNBC, the BBC and Bloomberg and a regular speaker at investor and business conferences including Fortune's Most Powerful Women in Business, the World Economic Forum, Euromoney and Institutional Investor conferences, the Confederation of British Industries Annual Meeting, the Asia Pacific Economic Council Business Leaders Annual Meeting, Cercle des Economists and various banking, asset management and industry annual meetings. She has also written for The International Economy, International Fund Investment Magazine and Institutional Investor.

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Best wishes