London, UK - 22 July 2007, 21:52 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to:

. Dr Martin Smith for "The Questionable Value System of the Russian Siloviki;"
. Lord Howell of Guildford for "De-escalating the UK-Russia Impasse;"
. Andrew Leung for "Unilateralism does not work! Global Interdependence supports Multilateralism;"
. John Pickering for "The Real Russian View;" and
. Prof Lord Skidelsky of Tilton from The Palace of Westminster for "Noting the Russian Constitution and Point of View;"

in response to The Lord Howell of Guildford's submission to ATCA, "Dealing with Russia and USA in the context of the Middle East, China and India: Is British diplomacy off the leash as a poodle turns into a bulldog?"

Dr Martin Smith has the rare distinction of having worked (at different times!) both for Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, President of the Russian Federation, and for Putin's arch political opponent, and former Yukos boss, Mikhail Borisovich Khodorkovsky, now languishing in a Siberian jail. He is the Founder and Chief Executive of West Bridge Consulting, a political and corporate communications advisory firm based in London. He was a partner at the leading UK corporate and financial PR consultancy Brunswick from 1997-2003. Before joining Brunswick he was Chairman of Government Policy Consultants (GPC) in London and Brussels. In the 1980s he was Head of Public Affairs at the National Consumer Council in London and an adviser to the European Commission, the Council of Europe, Bureau Europeen des Unions de Consommateurs (BEUC) and Consumers International. Martin has carried out assignments for the Canadian, Dutch, Czech, Slovak, Russian and Japanese governments. Martin Smith holds MA and PhD degrees in history awarded by Cambridge University, and is based in London. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: The Questionable Value System of the Russian Siloviki

I agree with Lord Skidelsky's characterization of the new British Foreign Secretary's response to the Litvinenko/Lugovoi affair as "cavalier", although I would prefer the word "simplistic". However I fear that Lord Skidelsky himself, a man whose deep knowledge of Russian political economy demands respect, is overly sanguine about the nature of the political crisis which currently engulfs UK relations with Moscow. It has been customary in Moscow for much of Putin's time as President of the Russian Federation to speak of Russia's "shared values" with the West. Although this is an entirely justifiable claim as regards whole swathes of the Russian intelligentsia, and indeed several distinguished Russian government ministers and officials, it does not reflect the value system of the Siloviki [Russian politician previously from the security intelligence and/or military establishment] who control many of the upper echelons of what are usually called the power ministries. As is clear from numerous public utterances, these men regard both the manner and the fact of the murder of Litvinenko in the heart of London's Mayfair as a matter of no great international consequence. What's the big deal? The man was a traitor!

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In the meantime the Litvinenko/Lugovoi affair will stand as a metaphor for all that is inhuman and corrupt in the higher reaches of Bonapartist officialdom in and around at least some of the corridors of power in Moscow.

Yours sincerely

Martin Smith
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The Right Honourable Lord (David) Howell of Guildford, President of the British Institute of Energy Economics, is a former Secretary of State for Energy and for Transport in the UK Government and an economist and journalist. Lord Howell is Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the House of Lords and Conservative Spokesman on Foreign Affairs. The Lord Howell of Guildford also Chairs the Windsor Energy Group. Until 2002 he was Chairman of the UK-Japan 21st Century Group, (the high level bilateral forum between leading UK and Japanese politicians, industrialists and academics), which was first set up by Margaret Thatcher and Yasuhiro Nakasone in 1984. In addition he writes a fortnightly column for The JAPAN TIMES in Tokyo, and has done so since 1985. He also writes regularly for the International Herald Tribune. David Howell was the Chairman of the House of Commons Select Committee on Foreign Affairs, 1987-97. He was Chairman of the House of Lords European Sub-Committee on Common Foreign and Security Policy from 1999-2000. In 2001 he was awarded the Grand Cordon of the Order of the Sacred Treasure (Japan). His latest book, 'Out of the Energy Labyrinth' has been described as 'a serious and thoughtful attempt to grapple with the complexities of the energy challenge and foreign policy', by James R Schlesinger, and as 'a terrific book, not least because of its topicality' by Sir Simon Jenkins. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: De-escalating the UK-Russia Impasse

I am glad that Lord Skidelsky and I are in agreement about the paramount importance of long-term good relations with Russia. But with the greatest respect I must disagree with him about the immediate situation and the question of the Constitution. We have been told of several instances where, despite the wording of the Constitution, individuals have been extradited from Russia in recent years. Were the Russian Government so minded I have no doubt that similar ways could be found in this case.

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I am not against the idea of a trial in Moscow, either with the full British evidence being openly given and heard, or even with a court meeting under British authority and procedures, as recently in The Hague. But one way or another I am sure the next steps can now be resolved without further public spats or posturing. It really ought to be possible between nations, who have everything to gain by being good friends and working together.

David Howell
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Andrew Leung has over 40 years of experience in a variety of senior positions working closely with China, including Hong Kong, covering commerce, industry, finance, banking, transport, social welfare and diplomatic representation. He has addressed numerous local and international business and strategic fora, groups and organisations on China, including making regular television appearances. He has written many key commentaries on China for pre-eminent global networks such as ATCA. His audience includes finance and investment houses, institutional investors, large businesses, think tanks, senior officials and business executives as well as business schools. He was twice sponsored personally by the US Government on briefing visits to the United States, including a month-long visit to brief Chairmen and CEOs of multi-nationals on China, post-Tiananmen Square. He was sponsored by the Economist as a speaker at a China conference in Berlin with the German Foreign Affairs Institute. He was invited to brief personally the Duke of York and the Lord Mayor of London prior to their China visits. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Unilateralism does not work! Global Interdependence supports Multilateralism

It goes without saying that appointing an open Bush critic as a minister and dropping hints at distancing Britain from US exceptionalism are part of a well-calculated move of Gordon Brown's new premiership to shed his predecessor's 'poodle' image. Such moves however reflect a realization that a one-sided alliance may no longer be fit for purpose in today's global interdependent geopolitics.

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Indeed, as Capitalism and Socialism are converging across the world, we need a paradigm shift in our thinking how to engage with other countries, and how to promote peace, stability and development in a world now virtually without borders.

Andrew Leung

Andrew Leung is on the Governing Council of King's College London; the Advisory Board of Nottingham University's China Policy Institute; and the Executive Committee of the 48 Group Club with historical and working links with the Chinese leadership. He leads the China Group of the Royal Society of Arts London Region and chairs the China Interest Group of the Institute of Directors' City Branch. He was Visiting Professor at the Graduate School of Management at NIMBAS University, Utrecht, Holland (2006) and at China's Sun Yat-Sen and Lingnan Universities (2005-6) for their International MBA Programmes. He was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts in June, 2002, and was awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the 2005 Hong Kong's Honours List. He has qualifications from the University of London, Cambridge University, The Law Society and Harvard Business School. He speaks Cantonese and Mandarin and practises Chinese calligraphy as well as fine art.
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John Pickering is the Vice-Chairman of the Labour Finance and Industry Group (LFIG) as well as being an industrialist. LFIG is a UK Labour loyal think tank that draws on the experience of senior managers, providing a practical filter for legislation. He has been in international business development throughout his career as a manufacturer and consulting engineer. He is currently the Chairman of a Russian pharmaceutical company and Chairman of the trustees of The Woolf Institute of Abrahamic Faiths in Cambridge. He is a graduate of Cambridge University in physics and engineering, Cranfield Business School as well a being a Fellow of the Institution of Electrical Engineers. He has gained worldwide experience in general management in the power field and spent a number of years managing power construction projects in Nigeria, Sudan and Iran financed by the World Bank. Since then he has been in telecommunications joining BT plc at privatisation to become their first head of commercial management. In more recent times he has been a director investor in a number of global enterprises. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: The Real Russian View

In reply to Lord Skidelsky and Lord Howell and since I have had Russian visitors all this last week in my capacity as chairman of a new Russian enterprise in Europe - the following information I was given might be of interest to you.

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Regards

John Pickering

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London, UK - 21 July 2007, 12:20 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to:

. Prof Lord Skidelsky of Tilton from The Palace of Westminster for "Noting the Russian Constitution and Point of View;"

in response to The Lord Howell of Guildford for his submission to ATCA, "Dealing with Russia and USA in the context of the Middle East, China and India: Is British diplomacy off the leash as a poodle turns into a bulldog?"

Prof Lord (Robert) Skidelsky is Professor of Political Economy at the University of Warwick, England, author of The World After Communism (1995) and the internationally acclaimed biography in three volumes of the most eminent post-Victorian economist Lord John Maynard Keynes, which received 5 prizes, including the Lionel Gelber Prize for International Relations and the Council of Foreign Relations Prize for International Relations. He was elected a Fellow of the British Academy in 1994. Robert Skidelsky was elevated to the House of Lords in 1991 and served as Chief Opposition Spokesman on Treasury Affairs (1998-1999). From 1991 to 2001 he was Chairman of the Social Market Foundation. Since 2002 he has been Chairman of the Centre for Global Studies (London). Lord Skidelsky is a non-executive director of Janus Capital Inc and a Director of Transnational Insights Ltd. A Russian speaker, he is Director of the Moscow School of Political Studies and a Trustee of Our Talents Foundation (Moscow). He is also a Trustee of the Manhattan Institute. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Noting the Russian Constitution and Point of View

I wholly agree with The Lord Howell that 'handling... Russia correctly...is vital to our well-being.' But I want to challenge his assertion that the expulsion of four Russian diplomats from London was an 'entirely justified retaliation' for Russia's refusal to extradite Andrey Lugovy to stand trial in a British court on a charge of having murdered Alexander Litvinenko. This was not an example of the correct handling of Russia.

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A correct handling of 'prickly' Russia might have been for Britain to agree that Lugovy be tried in Moscow, with the condition that British prosecutors presented their evidence in public to a Russian court. This would have been a constructive step towards cross-country judicial cooperation. It is still not too late for Britain to suggest this as a compromise, before the game of 'tit for tat' does more damage than anyone wants.

Thank you

Robert Skidelsky

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London, UK - 20 July 2007, 12:22 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to:

Given the recent diplomatic row between Russia and the United Kingdom, we are grateful to The Lord Howell of Guildford from The Palace of Westminster for his submission to ATCA, "Dealing with Russia and USA in the context of the Middle East, China and India: Is British diplomacy off the leash as a poodle turns into a bulldog?"

The Right Honourable Lord (David) Howell of Guildford, President of the British Institute of Energy Economics, is a former Secretary of State for Energy and for Transport in the UK Government and an economist and journalist. Lord Howell is Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the House of Lords and Conservative Spokesman on Foreign Affairs. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Dealing with Russia and USA in the context of the Middle East, China and India -- Is British diplomacy off the leash as a poodle turns into a bulldog?

Well, that's two important friends upset -- and all in the first few weeks of Gordon Brown's premiership. Moscow is seething at London's "immoral act" of chucking out four of their diplomats (read intelligence officers) in entirely justified retaliation for their refusal to hand over the number one suspect in the ugly murder of Alexander Litvinenko.

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Let us hope that our charted course through the rough global seas is now being quietly and skilfully altered.

Best wishes

David Howell

The Lord Howell of Guildford also Chairs the Windsor Energy Group. Until 2002 he was Chairman of the UK-Japan 21st Century Group, (the high level bilateral forum between leading UK and Japanese politicians, industrialists and academics), which was first set up by Margaret Thatcher and Yasuhiro Nakasone in 1984. In addition he writes a fortnightly column for The JAPAN TIMES in Tokyo, and has done so since 1985. He also writes regularly for the International Herald Tribune. David Howell was the Chairman of the House of Commons Select Committee on Foreign Affairs, 1987-97. He was Chairman of the House of Lords European Sub-Committee on Common Foreign and Security Policy from 1999-2000. In 2001 he was awarded the Grand Cordon of the Order of the Sacred Treasure (Japan). His latest book, 'Out of the Energy Labyrinth' has been described as 'a serious and thoughtful attempt to grapple with the complexities of the energy challenge and foreign policy', by James R Schlesinger, and as 'a terrific book, not least because of its topicality' by Sir Simon Jenkins.

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London, UK - 16 July 2007, 23:37 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to:

. Robert McNally, Chairman, London Chamber of Commerce Property and Construction Group, for "Erosion of Commercial Real Estate as a Solid Asset Class;"
. Alexander Hoare, CEO, C Hoare and Co, Private Bankers, based in the City of London, for "Destructive Creativity, Leverage and The Derivatives Market;" and
. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, for "The Fear of Central Bankers -- Flight from Illiquidity, Derivatives and Heightened Risk of Contagion;"

in response to, "Are the Currency Markets Warning that there is Trouble Ahead? The Precipitous Decline of the US Dollar and its Impact on the World."

Robert McNally is Chairman of the London Chamber of Commerce Property and Construction Group, a member of the executive committee of the Singapore Business Group in London and a member of the Investment Property Forum. Robert is a Partner in the leading City of London based international law firm, Stephenson Harwood. He is a recognised practitioner in real estate and real estate finance matters with over twenty five years' practical experience of finding solutions to real estate issues. He has a wealth of experience in all aspects of real estate and other property backed financing arrangements. He has also lectured in the UK and overseas on a variety of property related issues including, real estate investment in the UK and contemporary issues in property financing. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Erosion of Commercial Real Estate as a Solid Asset Class

I trust that you are all well. I have found this ATCA Socratic dialogue particularly interesting since it reflects what I have been observing in the UK commercial property market for some months now. Traditionally UK commercial property has been an important asset class particularly favoured by entities such as pension funds and life assurance companies principally because UK commercial property has offered certainty of income over a long term. As a consequence UK commercial property has formed a vital part of any balanced investment portfolio, providing high levels of income security and also the potential for capital growth, compared to the bond and equity markets, which have tended to be more volatile.

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Given the significant investment by UK pension funds in UK commercial real estate and with current general concerns regarding the inadequacy of pension provision in the UK, if there should be a "sudden disruptive movement" in the commercial real estate market this would be a further blow to the pension fund industry and the millions of workers who rely upon decent pension fund returns to fund their retirement.

Watch this space!

Robert McNally

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London, UK - 12 July 2007, 08:41 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

News that Standard & Poor's may cut the ratings of 612 residential mortgage-backed securities backed by US sub-prime loans (worth an estimated USD 12 billion) began the US dollar's further decline against both sterling and euro 36 hours ago. Fears that other ratings agencies could follow suit made the British pound (GBP) hit a new 26-year high against the dollar, rising to USD 2.0322 -- its highest level since June 1981. The euro (EUR) climbed further into record territory yesterday -- within sight of the USD 1.38 mark -- amid concerns about the health of the US economy fuelled by discouraging growth forecasts from key retailers and home builders as well as the currency markets focus on the possible collapse of the US subprime lending market. Traders said they sold dollars on concerns that problems in the US housing market could slow American economic growth.

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London, UK - 2 July 2007, 11:13 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

The UK's top counter-terrorism officer, Deputy Assistant Commissioner Peter Clarke, of the Metropolitan Police, said the links between the three attempted car bombings were becoming "ever clearer." He described the investigation into the failed bombings as "extremely fast-moving." He said forensic searches of vehicles were proving "extremely valuable" and thousands of hours of CCTV were being sifted through. In other developments:

. Those arrested are believed to be of varying Middle Eastern nationalities;

. A controlled explosion was carried out on a car at the hospital where a suspect is being treated. It is thought to have been connected to the failed airport bombing;

. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown said it was "clear that we are dealing, in general terms, with people who are associated with Al-Qaeda;"

. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement that he "deplored" the attempted attacks and said he would discuss them with Mr Brown when he visited London next week;

. US President George Bush said the failed bombings showed "the war against these extremists goes on." He praised "the very strong response" of the UK government; and

. UK Home Secretary Jacqui Smith will make a statement on the situation in the House of Commons today.
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Crossing the Chasm: Evolution towards a Liberal Society; Role of Islam in Politics; Avoiding Human Catastrophe

We are grateful to:

. Prof Jean Pierre Lehmann, Founder Director, Evian Group, based at IMD Lausanne, Switzerland, for "Crossing the Chasm: Evolution Towards a Liberal Society;"
. HE Basil Eastwood, former British Ambassador to Switzerland & Liechtenstein and Syria, for "Role of Islam in Politics;" and
. Florian Lennert, Director, Corporate Relations, LSE, from Kigali, Rwanda, for "Avoiding Human Catastrophe;"

in response to The Lord Desai of St Clement Danes, based at the Palace of Westminster, London, for his submission to ATCA, "The Roots of Terror: Islam or Islamism? Distinguishing between Religion and Ideology."

Jean-Pierre Lehmann is Professor of International Political Economy at IMD International -- Institute for Management Development -- in Lausanne, Switzerland, since January 1997. His main areas of expertise are the socio-economic and business dynamics of East Asia, the impact of globalisation on developing countries and the government -- business interface, especially in respect to the global trade and investment policy process. In 1994 he launched the Evian Group, which consists of high ranking officials, business executives, independent experts and opinion leaders from Europe, Asia and the Americas. The Evian Group's focus is on the international economic order in the global era, specifically the reciprocal impact and influence of international business and the WTO agenda. Jean-Pierre Lehmann acts in various leading capacities in several public policy institutes and organisations. He obtained his undergraduate degree from Georgetown University, Washington DC, and his doctorate from St Antony's College, Oxford University. He is the author of several books and numerous articles and papers primarily dealing with modern East Asian history and East Asia and the international political economy.

Prior to joining IMD, Jean-Pierre Lehmann has had both an academic and a business career which over the years has encompassed activities in virtually all East Asian and Western European countries, as well as North America. He was (from 1992) the founding director of the European Institute of Japanese Studies (EIJS) at the Stockholm School of Economics and Professor of East Asian Political Economy and Business. From 1986 to 1992 he established and directed the East Asian operations of InterMatrix, a London based business strategy research and consulting organisation. During that time he was operating primarily from Tokyo, with offices in Seoul, Taipei, Bangkok and Jakarta and was concurrently Affiliated Professor of International Business at the London Business School. Other previous positions include: Associate Professor of International Business at INSEAD (European Institute of Business Administration) in Fontainebleau, France; Visiting Professor at the Bologna Center (Italy) of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; twice in the 70s Visiting Professor and Japan Foundation Fellow at the University of Tohoku, Sendai (Japan); and Founding Director of the Center for Japanese Studies at the University of Stirling (Scotland), where he also taught East Asian history in the University's History Department. From 1981 to 1986 he directed the EC-ASEAN 'Transfer of Technology and Socio-Economic Development Programmes' held in Singapore, Bangkok, Jakarta, Kuala-Lumpur and Manila. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Crossing the Chasm: Evolution Towards a Liberal Society

Of course, one can only agree with the judicious comments of Lord Desai within the ATCA Socratic Dialogue.

In the West, even supposedly educated people are unaware of the unfair imperialist rulings the West imposed on the Arabs nearly a century ago. Sykes-Picot Agreement? ... ... What's that? Lord Desai rightly points out that such imperialist injustices and treacheries were also imposed on the Indians, Chinese, and others, but that they seem to have got over it. Yes, albeit for different reasons and with a time-lag.

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Is it humanity's fate that in order to gain a reasonably decent world, we must first descend into hell? Of course one must hope not, but this does not mean that these kinds of scenarios should not be considered. It may then be more possible to think of effective ways of trying to avoid them than to engage in wishful-thinking delusion.

Best wishes

Jean-Pierre
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HE Basil Eastwood was British Ambassador to Syria from 1996 to 2000 and to Switzerland & Liechtenstein from 2001 to 2004. He was Director of Research in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) from 1991 to 1996. As a member of the British Diplomatic Service from 1966 he also served in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Germany, Sudan and Greece and was seconded to the School for Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London from 2000 to 2001 as Project Director to launch the London Middle East Institute. He first served in the Middle East, however, in 1962 as a student teacher in Lebanon. He studied Arabic and Turkish at Oxford.

Since leaving the FCO, Basil Eastwood has worked as a consultant on Arabic extremist websites, serves on the board of the International Institute for Sustained Dialogue and takes part in the continuing series of meetings in its Arab-American-European Dialogue. The western members of this are mostly former senior government officials. The Arabs come from Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and, as a recent addition, Iraq. All are working for peaceful change within those countries. Nearly all are senior Islamists, mostly active in, or associated with, parties or organisations rooted in mainstream Islam. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Role of Islam in Politics

Discussion of the role of Islam in politics is complicated by the use of ambiguous or subjective terms such as 'moderate', 'extremist' or 'fundamentalist'. Could I suggest that in any correspondence inspired by Lord Desai's useful contribution we seek to avoid these.

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Clearly these distinctions can be blurred and sometimes for political reasons. Moreover movements and individuals can move from one category to another -- as indeed Hamas has done in resorting to arms against fellow Palestinians (while pleading provocation).

Basil Eastwood
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Florian Lennert is Director of Corporate Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, coordinating strategic partnerships with both business and government agencies, as well being responsible for international business development. Previously, he was a Director the LSE Foundation, Inc, in New York and Coordinator of the Centre for the Analysis of Risk and Regulation at the LSE in London. He holds a BSc in Economics and a Masters of Public Administration from the LSE. A native of Berlin, Germany, he has in the past worked for the German federal privatisation agency, the Treuhandanstalt, as well as the German Institute for Urban Research, where he managed development projects in Hungary, the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic on behalf of the German Federal government. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Avoiding Human Catastrophe

I would like to agree with and add to the comments by my distinguished mentor at the LSE, Lord Meghnad Desai. His observation are made with the precision, compassion and historical understanding that I have long admired.

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I hope you can share this vision. We have many problems to solve. Let's finally start.

Best

Florian Lennert

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London, UK - 5 May 2004, 17:15 GMT - The recent Sasser epidemic continues the saga of debilitating malware outbreaks in 2004, proving that many organisations and individual computer users are not always sufficiently up-to-date with patches issued by Microsoft. Also, some software systems deployed are completely embedded and it is difficult to note that they need to be patched. Unless automatic techniques for configuration management allow patch status to be policed and new patches to be applied on the fly, the global epidemics unleashed by computer malware problems are likely to carry on their escalating growth curve. This would result in reduced profitability for many corporations across the globe as unforeseen costs are added to maintain business operations.

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Full details of the April 2004 report are available as of 1st May 2004 and can be ordered from here. (To view contents sample please click here).

If you are already a member of the Inner Sanctum you should have been emailed a full copy. To retrieve the original article please fill out the order form.

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