London, UK - 25 July 2007, 09:11 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to Andrew Leung, based in London, and a frequent visitor to China, for his submission to ATCA, "China joins the Capitalist Club -- What does the multi-billion Euro investment in Barclays mean for the coming tidal wave?"

Andrew Leung has over 40 years of experience in a variety of senior positions working closely with China, including Hong Kong, covering commerce, industry, finance, banking, transport, social welfare and diplomatic representation. He has addressed numerous local and international business and strategic fora, groups and organisations on China, including making regular television appearances. He has written many key commentaries on China for pre-eminent global networks such as ATCA. His audience includes finance and investment houses, institutional investors, large businesses, think tanks, senior officials and business executives as well as business schools. He was twice sponsored personally by the US Government on briefing visits to the United States, including a month-long visit to brief Chairmen and CEOs of multi-nationals on China, post-Tiananmen Square. He was sponsored by the Economist as a speaker at a China conference in Berlin with the German Foreign Affairs Institute. He was invited to brief personally the Duke of York and the Lord Mayor of London prior to their China visits. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: China joins the Capitalist Club -- What does the multi-billion Euro investment in Barclays mean?

The world sits up as China Development Bank (CDB) is buying a multi-billion Euro stake in Barclays, along with Singapore government's Temasek. This could see the CDB's stake rising from at least 3.1% to 8% to become by far the biggest shareholder in this major British bank. Learning from her previous US adventures, the Barclays deal, before being signed, was well ventilated with the highest level of the British government, including the Prime Minister. The deal would strengthen Barclays' current bid for the Dutch bank ABN-Amro.

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Morgan Stanley has estimated that such sovereign funds assets worldwide could swell to USD 12 trillion by 2015. It is not inconceivable that a substantial part of this tidal wave of global capital will come from China.

Best regards

Andrew K P Leung

Andrew Leung is on the Governing Council of King's College London; the Advisory Board of Nottingham University's China Policy Institute; and the Executive Committee of the 48 Group Club with historical and working links with the Chinese leadership. He leads the China Group of the Royal Society of Arts London Region and chairs the China Interest Group of the Institute of Directors' City Branch. He was Visiting Professor at the Graduate School of Management at NIMBAS University, Utrecht, Holland (2006) and at China's Sun Yat-Sen and Lingnan Universities (2005-6) for their International MBA Programmes. He was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts in June, 2002, and was awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the 2005 Hong Kong's Honours List. He has qualifications from the University of London, Cambridge University, The Law Society and Harvard Business School. He speaks Cantonese and Mandarin and practises Chinese calligraphy as well as fine art.

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London, UK - 16 July 2007, 23:37 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to:

. Robert McNally, Chairman, London Chamber of Commerce Property and Construction Group, for "Erosion of Commercial Real Estate as a Solid Asset Class;"
. Alexander Hoare, CEO, C Hoare and Co, Private Bankers, based in the City of London, for "Destructive Creativity, Leverage and The Derivatives Market;" and
. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington, DC, for "The Fear of Central Bankers -- Flight from Illiquidity, Derivatives and Heightened Risk of Contagion;"

in response to, "Are the Currency Markets Warning that there is Trouble Ahead? The Precipitous Decline of the US Dollar and its Impact on the World."

Robert McNally is Chairman of the London Chamber of Commerce Property and Construction Group, a member of the executive committee of the Singapore Business Group in London and a member of the Investment Property Forum. Robert is a Partner in the leading City of London based international law firm, Stephenson Harwood. He is a recognised practitioner in real estate and real estate finance matters with over twenty five years' practical experience of finding solutions to real estate issues. He has a wealth of experience in all aspects of real estate and other property backed financing arrangements. He has also lectured in the UK and overseas on a variety of property related issues including, real estate investment in the UK and contemporary issues in property financing. He writes:

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Erosion of Commercial Real Estate as a Solid Asset Class

I trust that you are all well. I have found this ATCA Socratic dialogue particularly interesting since it reflects what I have been observing in the UK commercial property market for some months now. Traditionally UK commercial property has been an important asset class particularly favoured by entities such as pension funds and life assurance companies principally because UK commercial property has offered certainty of income over a long term. As a consequence UK commercial property has formed a vital part of any balanced investment portfolio, providing high levels of income security and also the potential for capital growth, compared to the bond and equity markets, which have tended to be more volatile.

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Given the significant investment by UK pension funds in UK commercial real estate and with current general concerns regarding the inadequacy of pension provision in the UK, if there should be a "sudden disruptive movement" in the commercial real estate market this would be a further blow to the pension fund industry and the millions of workers who rely upon decent pension fund returns to fund their retirement.

Watch this space!

Robert McNally

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London, UK - 12 July 2007, 08:41 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

News that Standard & Poor's may cut the ratings of 612 residential mortgage-backed securities backed by US sub-prime loans (worth an estimated USD 12 billion) began the US dollar's further decline against both sterling and euro 36 hours ago. Fears that other ratings agencies could follow suit made the British pound (GBP) hit a new 26-year high against the dollar, rising to USD 2.0322 -- its highest level since June 1981. The euro (EUR) climbed further into record territory yesterday -- within sight of the USD 1.38 mark -- amid concerns about the health of the US economy fuelled by discouraging growth forecasts from key retailers and home builders as well as the currency markets focus on the possible collapse of the US subprime lending market. Traders said they sold dollars on concerns that problems in the US housing market could slow American economic growth.

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London, UK - 5 May 2004, 17:15 GMT - The recent Sasser epidemic continues the saga of debilitating malware outbreaks in 2004, proving that many organisations and individual computer users are not always sufficiently up-to-date with patches issued by Microsoft. Also, some software systems deployed are completely embedded and it is difficult to note that they need to be patched. Unless automatic techniques for configuration management allow patch status to be policed and new patches to be applied on the fly, the global epidemics unleashed by computer malware problems are likely to carry on their escalating growth curve. This would result in reduced profitability for many corporations across the globe as unforeseen costs are added to maintain business operations.

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Full details of the April 2004 report are available as of 1st May 2004 and can be ordered from here. (To view contents sample please click here).

If you are already a member of the Inner Sanctum you should have been emailed a full copy. To retrieve the original article please fill out the order form.

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London, UK - 13 April 2004, 17:15 GMT - Just before Easter, customers of the venerable Swiss financial institution Zuercher Kantonalbank (ZKB) were targeted by identity theft emails. A few days prior to the ZKB incident, Basler Kantonalbank (BKB) customers were similarly targeted in another round of "phishing" scam attacks aimed at international and domestic banks worldwide. The Basler Kantonalbank has put up an advisory on its web site explaining the problem. Eastern European criminal syndicates are widely suspected of carrying out the phishing scams. Historically, Swiss private banks with their strict adherence to client confidentiality through "secrecy laws" have been seen as safe havens for high net worth individuals across the world. These recent phishing incidents seeking to carry out mass identity theft undermine confidence in the unique selling proposition of Swiss banks.

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Full details of the March 2004 report are available as of 1st April 2004 and can be ordered from here. (To view contents sample please click here).

If you are already a member of the Inner Sanctum you should have been emailed a full copy. To retrieve the original article please fill out the order form.

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London, UK - 6 April 2004, 9:30 GMT - For the last few days the Swiss financial institution - Basler Kantonalbank - customers have been targeted by identity theft emails in another round of "phishing" scam attacks aimed at international and domestic banks worldwide. The Basler Kantonalbank has put up an advisory on its web site explaining the problem: www.bkb.ch/hinweis

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Full details of the March 2004 report are available as of 1st April 2004 and can be ordered from here. (To view contents sample please click here).

If you are already a member of the Inner Sanctum you should have been emailed a full copy. To retrieve the original article please fill out the order form.

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London, UK - 26 March 2004, 15:00 GMT - Long protected by its geographical positioning in Europe and political neutrality, Switzerland is now coming under heavy digital fire from organised crime as a global centre for corporate and private finance according to the mi2g Intelligence Unit, the world leader in digital risk.

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Full details of the February 2004 report are available as of 1st March 2004 and can be ordered from here. (To view contents sample please click here).

If you are already a member of the Inner Sanctum you should have been emailed a full copy. To retrieve the original article please fill out the order form.

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